Russia\u2019s aggression in Ukraine<\/a> will have \u201csevere\u201d effects on the world economy, the International Monetary Fund warned Saturday<\/a>. Grain and fuel prices have surged to historic peaks. This seems like an awkward time to offer hope. Yet hope remains.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Our world is much more rigid. than it was even a generation ago, especially with regard to food. The food shock of 2022 is not a good-news story. The news is bad. But our \u201cbad\u201d is less<\/i> bad than ever before.<\/p>\n Russia and Ukraine are massive growers of grain, especially wheat. Russia produces about 10 percent of the planet\u2019s wheat; Ukraine about 4 percent. Some of that production is consumed at home, but after their domestic use, Russia and Ukraine together provide about one-quarter<\/a> of all the planet\u2019s wheat exports. They are important exporters of corn and barley as well, and of cooking oils, especially sunflower oil<\/a>. Now the Russian invasion has closed the ports through which Ukraine\u2019s wheat moved to world markets. Insurance costs have jumped for all shipping in the Black Sea. Spring crops will probably go unplanted in Ukraine; Russian crops face sanctions and embargo. Russia and its ally Belarus also are\u2014or were\u2014important exporters of the fertilizer that other food-raising countries use to grow their own crops.<\/p>\n The upheaval will touch every food consumer on Earth, even those living in food-secure countries such as the United States. Food prices are set in efficient global markets. All countries face similar prices, whether they are sellers into those markets or buyers from those markets. If the price goes up for anyone, it goes up for everyone.<\/p>\n Again: Sudden increases in global food prices are not good news. But also again: Some context is necessary. Four points of context, actually.<\/p>\n Maybe you retain some memory of old predictions about global famine? A best-selling book published in 1967 carries the lurid title Famine 1975! America\u2019s Decision: Who Will Survive?<\/i><\/a> <\/i>Among other predictions, the authors identified India as the nation most inevitably doomed to mass starvation and economic collapse.<\/p>\n So \u2026 guess which country is the world\u2019s second-largest producer of wheat in 2022, accounting for more than 13 percent of all output? That\u2019s right, the former alleged basket case India<\/a>. Since the 1960s, Indian wheat production has increased by nearly an order of magnitude, to almost 110 million metric tons<\/a> last year. Indian wheat exports will probably exceed 7 million metric tons this year, up from the previous peak of 6.5 million in 2012\u201313.<\/p>\n India also exported nearly 18 million metric tons of rice<\/a> in the 2020\u201321 marketing season, more than any other country. That\u2019s impressive, but not as dazzling as the performance of Vietnam, which has vaulted from exporting basically nothing as recently as 1989 to second place among rice exporters<\/a> in the 2020s. (The United States ranks fifth<\/a>.)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/jimmyschmidt.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/B37FA3E6-6D19-4BCE-ACED-DDC3C0EBE8AE.jpeg?resize=300%2C200\")
<\/p>\n1. We live in an age of food abundance.<\/h5>\n